CMHC housing forecast 2026 has just been downgraded — and every Ontario buyer, seller, and mortgage holder needs to understand what this means for home prices, sales volumes, and the rate environment heading into the fall market. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation now expects just 457,200 sales nationally this year (down 2.8% from 2025) and cuts its average price forecast to $675,200 — a 0.6% decline from last year. Here is the complete breakdown of what changed, why, and what to do about it.
⚠️ July 29, 2026 — CMHC Downgrade Summary: Sales forecast cut to 457,200 (–2.8%) | Avg price forecast $675,200 (–0.6%) | Ontario sales still projected to rise | BoC holds at 2.25% through 2026 | See today’s best mortgage rates at mrates.ca →
CMHC Housing Forecast 2026: What the Downgrade Says and Why It Happened
The CMHC housing forecast 2026 revision represents a significant shift from the agency’s February outlook, which had called for both sales and prices to increase this year. The downgrade was driven by four converging pressures that CMHC says are keeping buyers sidelined:
Full forecast data is available directly from CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook (cmhc-schl.gc.ca) — Canada’s primary housing research authority.
| Downgrade Driver | Details | Mortgage Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Economic uncertainty | Canada-U.S. trade war; CUSMA review ongoing | GoC bond yields elevated — fixed rates sticky above 3.9% |
| Slower population growth | Immigration targets reduced for 2026–2027 | Weaker demand floor; fewer new first-time buyers |
| High borrowing costs | BoC holding at 2.25%; fixed rates 3.89%–4.09% | Stress test compresses qualifying power |
| Modest income growth | Wage growth below home price-to-income ratio improvement pace | Affordability remains stretched in GTA/Vancouver |
CMHC vs. CREA vs. True North: The 2026 Forecast Conflict
Not all forecasters agree with the CMHC housing forecast 2026 downgrade. Here is how the major institutions compare as of late July 2026:
| Institution | 2026 Sales Forecast | 2026 Price Forecast | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMHC (July 2026) | 457,200 (–2.8%) | $675,200 (–0.6%) | Cautious — trade war and slow pop. growth headwinds |
| CREA (July 15, 2026) | 463,336 (–1.4%) | $686,710 (+1.1%) | Muted — building on June’s 0.5% MoM sales gain |
| True North Mortgage | +4.0% sales growth | +2.6% price growth | Optimistic — mild recovery, pent-up demand releasing |
| WOWA (July 24, 2026) | Muted growth | Stagnant nationally | Stable rates acting as brake on activity |
CREA’s June 2026 data release (July 15) is available at stats.crea.ca — Canada’s national real estate association publishes monthly MLS sales and price data.
Ontario Is the Exception — Sales Still Projected to Rise
Critically, CMHC’s own Housing Market Outlook projects that Ontario sales will begin rising in 2026 and continue trending upward into 2028 — driven by improving affordability as income growth outpaces home prices, extended amortization rules, and pent-up household formation demand. This makes Ontario the standout outlier in an otherwise cautious national forecast.
What the CMHC Housing Forecast 2026 Downgrade Means for Your Mortgage Strategy
For Active Buyers
The CMHC housing forecast 2026 downgrade is actually good news for buyers with a medium-term horizon. A weaker national market means more negotiating room, higher inventory, and less competition — particularly in the condo segment where days on market are still elevated. With Ontario sales projected to rise by CMHC’s own regional forecast, buyers who secure financing now at today’s best fixed rates (~3.89%–3.94%) are positioning ahead of the fall market pickup that CREA’s Senior Economist says is set up to happen after Labour Day.
For Sellers
The CMHC downgrade confirms what sellers in the GTA have already experienced — the market will not deliver the rapid price recovery many hoped for in 2026. The national average price of $696,078 (June 2026 WOWA) is 0.8% below May. Sellers should price at current market value with a competitive edge — overpriced listings continue to sit in the current environment, with average GTA days on market still at 42 days as of May 2026.
For Mortgage Renewers
The BoC holding at 2.25% through year-end 2026 — confirmed by both CMHC’s forecast assumptions and six consecutive holds — means fixed mortgage rates are unlikely to fall dramatically before your next renewal. Best broker 5-year fixed rates sit at ~3.89%–3.94% today. The CMHC downgrade does not change the renewal math: shop your renewal 120 days early, compare at least 5 lenders through a broker, and lock in a rate hold immediately.
Current Best Mortgage Rates — July 29, 2026
| Product | Best Broker Rate | Big Bank Average |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Fixed (Insured) | ~3.89%–3.94% | 4.34%–4.54% |
| 5-Year Fixed (Uninsured) | ~3.99%–4.09% | 4.44%–4.64% |
| 5-Year Variable | ~3.30%–3.55% | ~4.10%–4.45% |
| 3-Year Fixed | ~4.04%–4.14% | 4.44%–4.64% |
Compare live rates from 30+ Ontario lenders — updated after every CMHC report and BoC decision — at mrates.ca.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is CMHC’s housing forecast for 2026?
The CMHC housing forecast 2026 (revised July 2026) projects 457,200 national home sales — down 2.8% from 470,314 in 2025 — and a national average price of $675,200 (–0.6%). This represents a significant downgrade from CMHC’s February forecast, which had called for increases in both metrics. The downgrade was driven by economic uncertainty from Canada-U.S. trade tensions, slower population growth, and persistently high borrowing costs.
Will Canadian home prices drop in 2026 according to CMHC?
CMHC forecasts a modest 0.6% national average price decline to $675,200 in 2026. However, this is a national average — Ontario and specific markets within it may perform differently. CMHC’s own regional forecast projects Ontario sales rising through 2026–2028 as affordability improves, immigration-driven demand matures, and extended amortization rules support first-time buyer entry.
What is the national average home price in Canada right now?
The national average home price in Canada as of June 2026 is $696,078 (WOWA, July 24, 2026) — down 0.8% from May but still 0.5% above June 2025. The CREA benchmark price sits at approximately $667,700 nationally. See live updated prices at mrates.ca.
Should I buy a house in Ontario in 2026 given the CMHC downgrade?
For buyers with stable employment and a 5+ year horizon, CMHC’s downgrade is actually supportive — it signals more negotiating room, slower price growth that lets your savings catch up, and a window before Ontario’s projected sales recovery gains momentum in late 2026 and 2027. Get pre-approved at today’s rates and use the current buyer’s market conditions in the condo segment. See today’s best rates at mrates.ca.