The Bank of Canada April 29 interest rate announcement is coming up — and Ontario mortgage holders are watching closely. After three consecutive holds, the policy rate sits at 2.25%, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Here’s what the Bank of Canada April 29 decision means for your mortgage.
Three Holds in a Row — What’s Driving the Pause Ahead of Bank of Canada April 29?
The Bank of Canada held steady at its March 18, 2026 meeting — the third pause in a row. The central bank is caught between two competing pressures: rising geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict pushing oil prices higher (inflationary), and a softening Canadian economy with GDP growth of just 1.7% in 2025 and unemployment holding at 6.7% (disinflationary). The BoC is firmly in wait-and-see mode heading into Bank of Canada April 29.
What Happens to Variable Rates on Bank of Canada April 29?
If the Bank holds — which markets currently price at over 90% probability — variable mortgage rates stay flat. As of April 22, 2026, the best 5-year variable rate in Ontario is 3.35%. For existing variable-rate borrowers, a hold means no payment change. For buyers considering variable rates, this window of stability may not last: market forecasts now show a 75% chance of at least one rate hike by end of 2026 if energy prices remain elevated. You can follow the official schedule on the Bank of Canada’s press conference page.
Fixed Rates Are Already Moving Higher, Regardless of Bank of Canada April 29
Unlike variable rates, fixed mortgage rates don’t wait for the BoC — they follow Government of Canada bond yields. Yields have risen in response to the Iran conflict and oil price shock, pushing fixed rates higher. The best 5-year fixed rate in Ontario currently sits at 4.04% at brokers, while the Big 5 Banks start at 4.19% (CIBC). Fixed rates are already approximately 0.20% above their recent lows and may climb a further 0.05%–0.10% if bond yields stay elevated.
Ontario’s New HST Rebate: A Silver Lining for New-Build Buyers
Effective April 1, 2026, Ontario introduced a temporary expanded HST rebate on new homes. The full 13% HST is removed on eligible new homes valued up to $1 million, with partial relief available on homes up to $1.5 million (maximum rebate of $130,000). For buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines, this rebate meaningfully reduces upfront purchase costs on new builds.
Action Items for Ontario Borrowers Before Bank of Canada April 29
- Get a rate hold now. Lenders typically offer rate holds of up to 120 days. Lock in today’s rates before the Bank of Canada April 29 decision introduces any upward movement.
- Compare brokers vs. banks. Broker rates (3.35% variable, 4.04% fixed) are meaningfully lower than bank-posted rates. Shopping around saves thousands over a 5-year term.
- Renewals coming up? If your renewal falls in 2026, expect payment increases averaging around 20% versus pandemic-era rates — plan your budget accordingly.
- New-build buyers: Factor in the HST rebate when calculating your total purchase cost — it could save up to $130,000.
Want to lock in a rate before Bank of Canada April 29? Compare live lender offers on our best mortgage rates page, or run your payment on our mortgage payment calculator.
Bottom Line
A hold on Bank of Canada April 29 is the most likely outcome, but the rate environment in 2026 is more unpredictable than it has been in years. The Iran conflict, oil prices, US-Canada trade tensions, and Canada’s softening labour market could all shift the BoC’s hand. Ontario borrowers — whether buying, renewing, or refinancing — should act on current rates rather than wait for lower ones that may not come.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Bank of Canada cut or hike rates on April 29?
Markets currently price a hold at Bank of Canada April 29 at over 90% probability. The rate would remain at 2.25%, keeping prime at 4.45% and leaving variable mortgage rates unchanged.
Should I lock in a rate before Bank of Canada April 29?
Given fixed rates are already drifting higher on bond yield pressure independent of the BoC decision itself, securing a rate hold before Bank of Canada April 29 protects you from any further upward movement without costing you anything if rates happen to fall.
Check today’s best Ontario mortgage rates ahead of Bank of Canada April 29 at mrates.ca — updated daily.