📢 June 10, 2026 — Breaking: The Bank of Canada has announced it is holding its overnight rate at 2.25%, keeping the prime rate steady at 4.45%. This is the BoC’s third consecutive hold since October 2025. Here is everything mortgage holders in Ontario need to know right now.
Today’s Decision at a Glance
| Rate | Previous | June 10, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Overnight Rate | 2.25% | 2.25% | No Change ✓ |
| Prime Rate (Canada) | 4.45% | 4.45% | Unchanged ✓ |
| Best Variable Rate (broker) | ~3.60% | ~3.60% | No Change ✓ |
| Best 5-Yr Fixed (insured) | ~4.09% | ~4.14%–4.19% | ↑ Drifting Higher |
Why the BoC Held — The Key Drivers
The Bank of Canada cited three primary factors behind today’s hold decision:
- Oil price shock from the Iran conflict: The Iran-Strait of Hormuz supply disruption has pushed West Texas Intermediate crude to approximately $95–$100/barrel, up from $75 in February. This is feeding directly into headline inflation, tying the BoC’s hands on further cuts.
- Inflation near but not at target: CPI remains close to the 2% target but energy-driven upside risks make the BoC unwilling to cut further and risk reigniting price pressures.
- Labour market resilience: Canada’s employment figures have remained stronger than forecast, reducing the urgency for further stimulus through rate cuts.
Critically, the Bank’s statement today broke new ground: for the first time this rate cycle, both cuts AND hikes are explicitly on the table. Bond markets are pricing approximately a 5% probability of a hike at the next meeting (July 30) and an 11% probability by the September 17 meeting.
What This Means for Variable Rate Mortgage Holders
Immediate impact: None. Variable rate mortgage holders see no change today — prime stays at 4.45% and your rate and payment remain identical to yesterday.
Forward-looking risk: This is where today’s statement changes the calculus. Scotiabank now forecasts up to three rate increases in the second half of 2026. If that scenario materializes, variable rate holders face the possibility of prime rising to 5.20%–5.45% by year end — adding $75–$150/month per $500,000 of variable mortgage balance for each 0.25% hike.
| Scenario | Prime Rate Dec 2026 | Variable Rate (prime–0.85%) | Monthly Payment Change ($500K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case — BoC holds | 4.45% | 3.60% | No change |
| 1 hike (+0.25%) | 4.70% | 3.85% | +$63/mo |
| 2 hikes (+0.50%) | 4.95% | 4.10% | +$126/mo |
| 3 hikes — Scotiabank scenario (+0.75%) | 5.20% | 4.35% | +$189/mo |
What This Means for Fixed Rate Mortgage Holders and Buyers
Fixed rates are already responding — not to today’s hold, but to rising Government of Canada 5-year bond yields, which are tracking higher on inflation and rate hike expectations. The 5-year GoC bond yield has moved from approximately 2.80% in January to around 3.26% as of June 2026. This has nudged insured 5-year fixed rates from ~3.99% to approximately 4.14%–4.19% at the best broker rates today.
For buyers with a pre-approval, confirm your rate hold expiry date immediately. If your hold was set 90 days ago, it may be expiring this week. A rate hold from 90 days ago at 3.99% is more valuable today than it was when you got it — do not let it lapse without speaking to your broker.
Should You Convert Your Variable Mortgage to Fixed Today?
The conversion question has shifted materially after today’s statement. Two months ago, the BoC was in a steady-hold posture with the next move expected to be a cut. Today, hikes are explicitly back on the table. Here is the conversion framework:
- Convert NOW if: You are on a static-payment VRM within 15–20% of your trigger rate; your budget cannot absorb a $150–$200/month payment increase; or you have more than 2 years remaining on your term.
- Stay variable if: You plan to sell or renew within 12–18 months (avoiding the conversion rate penalty); you have cash reserves to absorb short-term rate increases; or you believe the Scotiabank hike scenario is unlikely.
- Key caveat: Conversion rates offered by your lender are typically posted rates — not best market rates. Always compare the conversion rate against current broker rates before accepting your lender’s conversion offer.
Next BoC Decision: July 30, 2026
The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is Wednesday, July 30, 2026. mrates.ca will publish a full update within 2 hours of the decision. Subscribe to our rate alerts to get notified the moment rates change.
Check today’s updated mortgage rates — live within hours of every BoC decision — at mrates.ca.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Bank of Canada raise rates today?
No. On June 10, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%. Prime rate remains at 4.45%. No changes to variable mortgage rates or HELOC rates today.
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates in 2026?
As of June 10, 2026, the BoC has opened the door to both cuts and hikes. Scotiabank forecasts up to three hikes in H2 2026. Most other major banks still expect rates to hold through year-end. The outcome depends heavily on whether energy-driven inflation proves persistent or temporary.
What is the prime rate in Canada today?
The prime rate in Canada as of June 10, 2026 is 4.45%, unchanged from the previous meeting.